Live values recompute from the sliders. Formulas and sources are fixed.
1. User growth
MAU[m] = MAU[m-1] × (1 - churn[m]) + waitlist[m] + inflow[m]
Waitlist conversionbase 65% / bear 55% · Robinhood 50%+ waitlist conversion (Forbes 2013)
Monthly inflow peak150K/mo at Mo 6 (base) · floor comp: Dosh 125K/mo (TechCrunch 2018-19)
Churn Mo 1-120.2%, 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.8%, 0.8%, 0.8%, 1.0%, 1.0%, 1.0%
Churn Y2+1.0%/mo flat · passive utility, no engagement loop to disengage from
Inflow Y2 decay1.5%/mo decay, floor 75% of Mo 12 · Ibotta S-1 (2024), a16z State of Fintech (2023)
→ Users Mo 12 (live)—
→ Users Mo 24 (live)—
2. Brand acquisition
newBrands[m] = Σ(chiEmails × conv × sat) × util + inbound · WOM
Email pipe50K/day × 30 days = 1.5M/mo · Influencers Club 100K/day at 95% inbox placement documented
End-to-end conversionbase 0.025% · bear 0.021% · ABM benchmark (ITSMA, Demandbase, Crayon, 6sense)
Utilization ramp30% at 150K MAU → 100% at 500K MAU (log) · targeting intelligence requires user density
Channel share (Mo 3+)Ch1 cluster 25% · Ch2 coverage 45% (× 0.70 overlap) · Ch3 high-spend 30%
Saturationsat = 1 / (1 + prevBrands / 154K Apollo pool) · hyperbolic decay, never fully exhausts
Inbound + WOMinbound ramps 15→120/mo Mo 1-12 · WOM 0.8% base / 0.5% bear of existing brand base
Brand churn0.5%/mo base · 1.0%/mo bear · Klaviyo 90%+ NRR S-1 2023 · LiveRamp 95%+ NRR 2023 AR
Y2 outbound decay0.4%/mo reduction past Mo 12 · floors at 95% (minimal — performance-differentiated)
Y2 inbound ramp4%/mo compounding from Mo 12 · Segment / HubSpot Y2 inbound 3-5× Y1 after case studies
→ Brands Mo 12 (live)—
→ Brands Mo 24 (live)—
3. Revenue
revenue[m] = Σ(AO × floor × users/AO × dm × cm × ar × fee) + memberships
Tier mix Mo 1-1295/5/0 → 45/43/12 (Starter / Growth / Scale) by Mo 9 · deepens through Mo 24
AO floor (per user)Starter $5.00 · Growth $3.50 · Scale $3.00 · user payout is 100% of floor
Transaction fee (on top)Starter 12% · Growth 10% · Scale 8%
MembershipsStarter $199 (Mo 1-6) → $499 (Mo 7+) · Growth $999 · Scale $1,999
Users per AOStarter 500 · Growth 1,000 · Scale 1,000
AO utilization / brandStarter: 1 AO · Growth: 3 avg · Scale: 4-6 by Mo 12 (base) / 3-4 (bear)
Audience ramp (ar)1 + ln(MAU / 150K) × Ksc · K base 0.20 / bear 0.15 (targeting precision scales with MAU)
Competitive mult (cm)base 1.0 → 1.15 (Mo 0-11 linear, then slow continued) · bear 1.0 → 1.08
Depth mult (dm, Mo 6+)1.0 + 0.3 × integration rate · base 0.65 / bear 0.45 (location + social integrations)
→ ARR Mo 12 (live)—
→ ARR Mo 24 (live)—
→ Cumulative payouts Mo 24—
→ $1B crossing—